The world on 22 October: the Gulf, Moscow and a long pause in talks

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The world's 22 October was dominated by oil. The Houthis claimed a strike on the Saudi Defence Ministry building in Riyadh, Saudi Aramco moved its Dhahran headquarters to remote work, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reported seven vessels hit near the Strait of Hormuz, and Brent cost more than $112 a barrel for the first time since mid-May. In Moscow the government reshuffle was completed, a cassation court upheld an 18.2 trillion rouble award against Euroclear, and Kirill Dmitriev named a new start date for the diesel fuel deal with the US. Talks on Ukraine, meanwhile, are standing still: there is no Russian delegation for a new three-way round, and no Putin–Trump call is planned.

Below is what follows from this and why it matters for Kazakhstan.

The Gulf: the Houthi war reaches the capital

Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree claimed four operations in 48 hours: on the Saudi Defence Ministry building in Riyadh, Aramco facilities in Yanbu and the airports of Dammam and Abha. The Saudi side has not confirmed a hit on the ministry. A day earlier three people were killed in the Eastern Province, including in an attack on Dammam airport. Aramco, according to Reuters, moved headquarters staff to remote work and raised the capacity of its East–West pipeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz to 7 million barrels a day. The US State Department ordered non-emergency staff to leave Saudi Arabia, and US forces are reducing their presence at bases in the region.

In the strait itself, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that it had struck four vessels during oil transfers in the northern Persian Gulf, while three more hit mines. US President Donald Trump said that talks with Iran were continuing on a limited basis and that "something one way or the other" would happen "fairly soon".

The market responded with prices: Brent rose above $112 for the first time since 16 May. For Kazakhstan this is not abstract: the export grades CPC Blend and KEBCO are priced off Brent, and in October CPC Blend was already more expensive than Brent. At the same time Türkiye submitted to parliament the Mecca agreement on joint defence with Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, so a regional alliance is taking shape against the backdrop of war.

Note. The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea; a significant share of the world's seaborne exports of oil and liquefied gas passes through it. The East–West pipeline lets Saudi Arabia export oil through Red Sea ports, bypassing the strait.

Moscow: the cabinet, diesel fuel and Euroclear

Russian President Vladimir Putin approved the reshuffle announced on 19 October: Siluanov became deputy prime minister while keeping the finance ministry, Nikitin deputy prime minister, Rosaviatsia head Yadrov transport minister, and Okladnikova head of the government staff. Yury Trutnev was appointed a presidential aide, and Dmitry Grigorenko is being nominated as deputy chairman of the Sberbank board.

RDIF head Kirill Dmitriev promised that the deal to supply Russian diesel fuel to the US would "start being implemented literally tomorrow", that is, on 23 October, although the first tanker had been expected on 22 October. The US, for its part, extended until 21 November the licence for talks on selling Lukoil's foreign assets; the company's Kazakh projects are covered by a separate licence. The Moscow District Commercial Court rejected Euroclear's cassation appeal and upheld the 18.2 trillion rouble award to the Bank of Russia; Euroclear does not recognise the Russian court's jurisdiction.

The first tanker was expected on 22 October and implementation of the deal was set for the 23rd: so far the schedule shifts by one day at a time.

Ukraine: strikes, but no round

Overnight into 22 October the Russian Defence Ministry reported 808 drones shot down, and in Kyiv traffic on the Southern Bridge was restricted after strikes. Russia and Ukraine exchanged the bodies of the dead. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Putin had not yet decided on the delegation for a new round of three-way talks, and that a Putin–Trump call was not planned but could be arranged quickly. In the European Union, according to Politico, there is discussion of who could negotiate with Putin on behalf of the whole bloc; names mentioned include Ursula von der Leyen, António Costa, Kaja Kallas and Finnish President Alexander Stubb.

The region and the UN

Kazakhstan backed UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Lana Nusseibeh for UN Secretary-General: the election has stalled in the Security Council, and António Guterres leaves on 31 December. In Uzbekistan, the Navoi Mining and Metallurgical Company reported 2.3 million ounces of gold in nine months with the value of output up by a third, and the Uzbek fintech Alif became the country's first issuer on the AIX exchange in Astana with Islamic bonds. Turkmenistan promises gas through TAPI to Herat in 2027, and Kyrgyzstan is raising benefits for children with disabilities and older people from January.

What next

The near-term questions: will real diesel fuel deliveries from Russia to the US begin on 23 October; will Riyadh confirm damage from the Houthi strikes and respond; will Brent stay above $112. On Ukraine, watch for the date and make-up of the three-way round to which Moscow is ready to return in November. The fate of Lukoil's foreign assets will be decided by 21 November, and the name of the new UN Secretary-General by the end of the year.

List of sources used

Artificial intelligence was used in preparing this material.

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