The world's Saturday split along three lines. In Europe, protest against high prices spread well beyond France, to Barcelona, Rome and Tirana. On the Russia-Ukraine front, the sides agreed on targeted steps, a ceasefire in one town and a prisoner exchange, while the Starlink dispute showed how much the front depends on a private company. In the Middle East, the Houthis turned their strikes on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, Israel launched an operation in the West Bank three days before its election, and Brazil chooses a president on Sunday.
Europe: the protest is spreading, though with fewer people
In France, according to the Interior Ministry, 410,000 people took to the streets, against 550,000 a week earlier; the CGT union counted almost 800,000. The number of arrests, by contrast, rose to about a thousand, and Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez expects it to grow. A curfew for minors has been extended until 26 October, and the Yellow Vests are calling people onto the streets on 31 October.
What was new on Saturday was geography. In Barcelona 14 shops were looted and more than 100 people arrested, almost 30 of them minors. In Italy, demonstrations against expensive fuel, inflation and the "war economy" ended in clashes in Turin, Bologna and Florence. In Tirana, clashes that began on 13 October are continuing. The common denominator is prices, above all fuel prices.
Ukraine: targeted agreements and dependence on communications
Russia and Ukraine, according to Russian ombudsman Yana Lantratova, are fulfilling their obligations on Oleshky; the ceasefire starts at 04:00 Moscow time on 27 October, and Volodymyr Zelenskyy pledged to honour it. In parallel, an exchange took place after which 270 prisoners of war returned to Russia. This is the humanitarian track; Moscow, according to Rodion Miroshnik, does not link the ceasefire to the course of political negotiations.
The Starlink dispute matters more than it seems. Zelenskyy announced that the connection had been restored, while Elon Musk said the restriction was a response to a breach of the terms and added that without Starlink the Ukrainian front would "immediately" collapse. Former US officials told Reuters that Washington had for years asked SpaceX to switch the service on and off in various countries. The dispute showed how much command of forces depends on a single private communications supplier.
The Middle East and oil
The Houthis claimed strikes on Saudi Aramco facilities, an oil pipeline and Saudi airports; Yemen's government reported three more ballistic missiles fired at Aden. Neither Riyadh nor the company has confirmed any damage. For Kazakhstan such news matters more than it seems: the price of Kazakh oil is set by the world market, CPC Blend and KEBCO prices are linked to Brent, and Brent reacts to every threat to supplies from the Gulf.
Israel launched an operation in the West Bank; in Hebron, according to Anadolu, around 1,500 Palestinians have been forced from their homes. Three days remain before the 27 October parliamentary election, and in Tel Aviv thousands of people protested against Netanyahu's government.
What next
25 October: the second round of Brazil's presidential election, where Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula are within the margin of error, and snap parliamentary elections in Serbia. 26 October: end of the curfew for teenagers in France. 27 October: start of the Oleshky ceasefire and Israel's election. 31 October: a new nationwide Yellow Vests protest.
