Moscow, 20 October. Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan have prepared a report on the possible consequences of suspending Armenia's membership of the EAEU: the authors estimate that Armenia's GDP could shrink by 15.6%, or about $4.6 billion.
The report examines Yerevan's steps towards joining the European Union, the compatibility of obligations in the two blocs and legal mechanisms to prevent the related risks. On 20 October the four countries' heads of government sent an appeal with the report to the Eurasian Economic Commission for transmission to the leaders of the union's member states.
According to the authors, inflation would rise by 14.9 percentage points, consumption would fall by 14.6%, trade with EAEU countries by more than 55%, Armenian exports to the bloc by more than 65% and imports by almost half. Customs clearance and controls would have to be restored, Armenian conformity documents would no longer be recognised, and full sanitary, veterinary and phytosanitary controls would return. Workers from Armenia would again need patents or work permits, and Armenia would lose national treatment in public procurement and its share of distributed import duties. Kazakhstan's National Bank also summarised the report.
The Eurasian Economic Union brings together Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia: there are no customs borders inside it, and citizens work without permits. Leaving the union would therefore change both trade and labour migration for Armenia's economy at once.
Background: On the same day it emerged that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan would attend the EU enlargement summit in Brussels.
List of sources used: Business Online, National Bank, Atameken Business
Artificial intelligence was used in preparing this material.
