Astana, 23 October. The National Bank has changed the scheme for converting transfers from the National Fund: additional money the government withdraws from the fund at the end of 2026 will first be credited to the National Bank's gold and foreign currency reserves and then sold on the market in small portions, so that a one-off flood of currency does not crash the dollar.
"Additional transfers have now increased, and the volumes are considerable. If all this were poured onto the market before the end of the year, the dollar would go to unclear levels, could fall very low, and not on fundamentals, because this is a one-off factor," explained National Bank Governor Timur Suleimenov. Previously the regulator announced annual and monthly sales volumes in advance, letting the market adjust; now the large inflows of the fourth quarter will be spread over a longer period, and the effect will be carried over and offset in 2027. The National Bank promises to warn the market of its actions in advance.
The National Bank has also factored the additional budget spending into its forecast, widening the range of possible inflation by about 0.5 percentage points. If people and companies receive more money but the supply of goods and services does not grow, prices may rise faster; in that case the National Bank may pause further rate cuts.
What it means: National Fund money for the budget will not be dumped onto the currency market all at once: the National Bank will spread the sales so as not to strengthen the tenge artificially. But the extra spending itself, in its assessment, adds inflation risk.
Who benefits: Exporters and the budget avoid a sudden, "non-fundamental" strengthening of the tenge. For importers this is less favourable than a sharp drop in the dollar, but the exchange rate will be more predictable.
Background: In early October the National Bank had already postponed additional currency sales of $200–300m under the mirroring of National Fund operations because of excess supply on the market, BES.media reported.
List of sources used: Atameken Business, BES.media
Artificial intelligence was used in preparing this material.
