The world on 23 October: Oleshky, Hormuz and diesel fuel

Graphic: a globe — VRK News graphic. AI-generated

Friday, 23 October, brought the world a rare humanitarian agreement and an alarming oil price high. Russia and Ukraine, with the US first lady as mediator, agreed to a truce in Oleshky to evacuate civilians, and the Kremlin named the timing of a trilateral round in Abu Dhabi. In the Persian Gulf, Iran said two tankers had struck mines, and Brent rose above $117 for the first time since March. Russia, meanwhile, sent the first tankers of diesel fuel towards the Atlantic under its deal with Washington, while Europe braced for unrest and elections.

Below is what follows from all this and what to watch in the coming weeks.

Ukraine: a truce for one town

The White House announced that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to cease fire in Oleshky, Kherson region, to deliver aid and evacuate those who wish to leave; according to Washington, Melania Trump negotiated the deal. The militaries of both sides gave the morning of 27 October as the start, the White House 29 October; no one explained the discrepancy. Peskov said Putin and Trump had discussed the matter by phone and that the evacuation would take several days.

A local pause is not a ceasefire on the front. The same day the governor of Oryol region reported a Ukrainian missile strike on an enterprise in Oryol, the Bryansk governor a death in a strike on a bus, and the Russian Defence Ministry a strike on a logistics centre in Chernihiv, while a drone sank a merchant ship off Romania's coast; European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called it "Russian escalation". The main political event lies ahead: trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine and the United States, which the Kremlin has scheduled for the first half of November in Abu Dhabi and which, according to Peskov, will focus on post-war security.

Oil and gas: Hormuz at half capacity

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said two tankers taking an "unauthorised" route had struck mines; there is no confirmation from other sources. Brent gained more than 3% on the day and rose above $117. According to estimates cited by the Russian press, by mid-October the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz had halved from pre-war levels. Donald Trump threatened "another little Epic Fury", the name of the US-Israeli operation that started the war with Iran in February. Gas in Europe rose to $1,072 per 1,000 cubic metres, its highest since December 2022.

Note. Before the war, a significant share of the world's seaborne exports of oil and liquefied gas from the Persian Gulf passed through the Strait of Hormuz. With it working at half capacity, every piece of news about tankers pushes oil prices up; oil that reaches buyers by bypassing the Gulf, including Kazakhstan's CPC Blend via the Black Sea, sells at those high prices.

Against this background Russia is increasing diesel exports. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said companies may export 500,000 tonnes in October and that the first three tankers are heading for the Atlantic; the first of them is expected in New York on 7 November. In the US Congress, a bill by Democrat Gregory Meeks seeks to cancel the deal. The Bank of Russia kept its key rate at 14% the same day. High prices are showing up in oil companies' results: Italy's Eni quadrupled its quarterly profit, and its refining margin rose to $28.1 a barrel.

The Middle East: Hebron and Karak

Four days before the 27 October election, Benjamin Netanyahu closed Hebron after two soldiers were killed nearby and threatened the largest West Bank operation since 1967. A Maariv poll shows his bloc losing seats: 48 against the opposition's 54, with no one holding a majority. In neighbouring Jordan, two gunmen attacked a funeral at a church in Karak, killing seven and injuring 27; the authorities called the attack terrorism and banned publications about the investigation.

Europe: terrorism, protests and elections

Emmanuel Macron called the shooting in Trappes near Paris a racist terrorist attack and a "turning point", and the interior minister deployed 70,000 police officers and gendarmes for 24 October against expected unrest. On 25 October Serbia votes in early parliamentary elections in which Aleksandar Vucic, having resigned as president, is seeking the premiership, and Bulgaria holds the first round of a presidential election described as a test of its foreign policy course.

What next

24 October: protests in France and the Almaty Open semi-finals. 25 October: elections in Serbia and Bulgaria. 27 October: the Oleshky ceasefire and Israel's parliamentary election. 1 November: a likely presidential runoff in Bulgaria. 7 November: the first tanker of Russian diesel fuel due in New York. First half of November: the trilateral round in Abu Dhabi. For Kazakhstan, the key indicator on this list is Hormuz: as long as only half the pre-war flow passes through it, oil, and with it revenue from CPC Blend, will remain expensive.

List of sources used

Artificial intelligence was used in preparing this material.

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Ukraine: a truce for one town

Oil and gas: Hormuz at half capacity

The Middle East: Hebron and Karak

Europe: terrorism, protests and elections

What next

List of sources used

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