23 October: what changed for Kazakhstan

Graphic: a map pin — VRK News graphic. AI-generated

Friday, 23 October, was dominated by artificial intelligence and money. NVIDIA chief Jensen Huang made his first visit to Kazakhstan, proposed turning the country into a global hub for physical AI and received the Order of Dostyk from the President. The National Bank cut its base rate to 15.75%, explained why there are so many dollars in the country and acknowledged that the strong tenge had cut the pension fund's income. In the evening, on the eve of Republic Day, state awards were presented across the country, while statistics showed that pay rises have lagged behind prices for the fourth quarter running.

Below is what follows from all this and what to watch in the coming weeks.

AI: a high-profile visit, few specifics so far

Huang called physical artificial intelligence, the kind that controls robots and machines in the real world, "the largest industry in the world", and at his meeting with President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev he proposed making Kazakhstan its global hub. The same day NVIDIA and the TCV fund invested in Higgsfield, a video-generation platform co-founded by a Kazakh engineer, and inDrive announced that it was preparing a robotaxi service in Astana with China's Pony.ai and NVIDIA.

So far the visit's results are measured in words and awards. Official statements contain no amounts, deadlines or binding agreements; the robotaxi, for example, still needs government approval. Meanwhile the government published a plan for developing unmanned systems for 2026–2029 with a single digital platform and training for at least 1,000 specialists, and the Swiss president invited Kazakhstan to the Geneva AI summit in June 2027.

Note. Physical AI is a field in which models do not just generate text and images but control devices: warehouse robots, driverless vehicles, factory manipulators. It needs enormous computing power and therefore cheap energy, which is what Kazakhstan is betting on.

Money: a lower rate, a stronger tenge, poorer pensions

The National Bank cut its base rate from 16.25% to 15.75% and signalled that it does not intend to change it before 4 December. Governor Timur Suleimenov attributed the abundance of dollars to three sources: oil up 70–80%, non-residents' investment in government debt, and foreign borrowing by companies and banks. To keep new withdrawals from the National Fund from crashing the dollar exchange rate, the currency will be sold in small portions.

The strong tenge has a downside. The investment income of the Unified Accumulative Pension Fund fell from about 1.1 trillion to 800 billion tenge, as the fund's foreign-currency assets lost value in tenge terms. And a Bureau of National Statistics survey showed that the average wage rose 8.4% in nominal terms in the second quarter but fell 1.8% in real terms. Earnings are rising fastest for holders of advanced degrees and employees of companies with foreign capital; the median wage is 348,415 tenge.

Oil: expensive and contested

Brent rose above $117 a barrel in a single day for the first time since March, after Iran said two tankers had struck mines in the Strait of Hormuz. For Kazakhstan, whose CPC Blend is priced against Brent and travels via the Black Sea, this means high export revenue: precisely the first source of dollars named by the National Bank governor. Kashagan partner Eni reported a fourfold rise in quarterly profit the same day, a day after an international arbitration tribunal rejected part of Kazakhstan's claims against the consortium.

KazMunayGas is studying a buyout of Lukoil's stake in the Kalamkas-More – Khazar project, and the GPC Investment gas processing plant for Kashagan gas is due, according to project documents, to be launched at the end of 2027. From 1 November KMG refineries switch to road bitumen grades adapted to regional climates.

Regions and the law

In Atyrau officials have started determining which homes near the oil refinery will fall within the revised sanitary zone and face possible relocation. In Petropavl a court awarded 200,000 tenge to a man held for four days under unlawful arrest, while a court in Turkestan region remanded journalist Amangeldy Batyrbekov in custody for two months. A Kurultai committee in East Kazakhstan discussed why dairy and meat plants already built are running below capacity, and the roadside service development plan that the Transport Ministry approved on 14 October puts the share of highway facilities meeting the standard at 93%, according to the Numbers and Power channel.

What next

25–26 October is a long Republic Day weekend, and the weather is turning: 27 road sections in five regions are already closed to lorries. On 28 October the President will deliver his State of the Nation address. On 30 October special procurement rules for the first nuclear power plant take effect, allowing key equipment to be bought without a tender. The next rate decision is due on 4 December; until then the main questions are currency sales from the National Fund and the tenge exchange rate with oil above $115.

List of sources used

Artificial intelligence was used in preparing this material.

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AI: a high-profile visit, few specifics so far

Money: a lower rate, a stronger tenge, poorer pensions

Oil: expensive and contested

Regions and the law

What next

List of sources used

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