Astana, 23 October. The National Bank of Kazakhstan cut its base rate from 16.25% to 15.75% a year with a corridor of ±1 percentage point, but assessed the likelihood of another change before the end of 2026 as low because the balance of risks has shifted towards faster inflation; the next scheduled decision will be announced on 4 December.
This is the fourth cut in a row since the easing cycle began in June; the market expected it but had forecast a smaller step. The base rate is the interest rate around which the National Bank keeps the cost of money on the interbank market; loan and deposit rates depend on it. The regulator explained its decision by the fact that annual inflation has been falling for twelve months in a row: in September it slowed to 9.3%, food inflation to 8.5% and non-food inflation to 11%, while services inflation stayed at 8.9%. Households' inflation expectations for the year ahead fell to 11.8%, and professional market participants expect inflation of 9.5% at the end of 2026 and 8.3% for 2027.
Price pressure has not gone away: monthly inflation in September was 0.6% and core inflation 0.7%. The National Bank links domestic risks to fiscal and quasi-fiscal stimulus, fuel prices and regulated tariffs, and external risks to high energy and food prices amid the situation in the Middle East and tighter global financial conditions: in September the ECB raised rates for the second time this year and the Fed for the first time since 2023. Annual inflation may speed up by December because of the low base of 2025 for utility tariffs: a moratorium was in force from October 2025 to March 2026, and tariffs were cut by 14% in the fourth quarter of 2025. GDP grew by 4.2% in nine months and fixed investment by 7%.
What it means: Loans in Kazakhstan will become slightly cheaper, but this is probably the last cut of 2026: the National Bank says plainly that inflation risks prevail.
Who benefits: Borrowers and companies taking out loans, whose rates follow the base rate. The decision is unfavourable for depositors, as deposit yields usually fall after the rate.
Background: The same day National Bank Governor Timur Suleimenov rejected the theory of an "unknown source of dollars" that social media users had used to explain the strengthening of the tenge.
List of sources used: National Bank of Kazakhstan, Nationalbusiness, QazTrading, Atameken Business
Artificial intelligence was used in preparing this material.
