Brasília, 25 October. Brazil votes on 25 October in the second round of its presidential election: in the final Datafolha poll, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro has 51% of valid votes and incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 49%, with a margin of error of two points.
A runoff was needed because no one won more than half the vote in the first round on 4 October. Then Bolsonaro took 47.08% and Lula 45.11%. Since then the polls have shown an almost even race: in a Quaest poll for Globo published on 21 October, Bolsonaro had 45% and Lula 44%, against 46% and 44% a week earlier, Reuters reported. Before the vote the candidates met in a television debate in São Paulo on 18 October.
Flávio Bolsonaro is a senator for Rio de Janeiro and the eldest son of former right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro. Lula, who is 80, is seeking a fourth term. Citizens over 16 can vote in Brazil.
What it means: Latin America's largest country is choosing between an incumbent left-wing president and the son of his right-wing predecessor, and no poll puts either outside the margin of error.
Who benefits: The result will set the course of Latin America's largest economy and a BRICS member.
Background: In Brazil the first round is held on the first Sunday of October and the second on the last. Lula was president in 2003–2010 and returned to office in 2023, succeeding Jair Bolsonaro.
