Kyiv, 1 November. Ukraine’s public and publicly guaranteed debt stood at 9,538.35 billion hryvnias, or 212.61 billion dollars, on 30 September 2026, Ukraine’s Ministry of Finance said.
The calculation by RIA Novosti that over 20 years the debt grew 130-fold is correct only in hryvnias: in dollars the growth is almost nine times smaller, 14.65-fold.
RIA Novosti compared the Ministry of Finance data with data from Ukraine’s State Statistics Service for the third quarter of 2006, when the debt stood at 73.288 billion hryvnias. In 2006 the National Bank’s official rate stayed around 5.05 hryvnias to the dollar, so the debt of the time was equal to about 14.5 billion dollars. On 30 September 2026 the National Bank set the rate at 44.86 hryvnias to the dollar, and 9,538.35 billion hryvnias correspond to the same 212.6 billion dollars.
The gap between 130 and 14.65 lies in the exchange rate. The dollar rose from 5.05 to 44.86 hryvnias, that is, 8.9-fold, and the hryvnia lost about 89% of its value in dollars. Multiply 14.65 by 8.9 and the same 130 comes out.
Since the end of 2021, shortly before February 2022, the debt has grown from 97.95 billion dollars to 212.61 billion, that is, 2.17-fold, or by 114.7 billion dollars in four years and nine months. In hryvnias the growth is a third larger, 3.57-fold, because over that time the rate rose from 27.28 to 44.86 hryvnias. Since the start of 2026 the debt has not grown in dollars at all. The Ministry of Finance reports an increase of 495.67 billion hryvnias and 5.92 billion euros, but in dollars the debt fell by 0.72 billion, ZN.ua writes. Almost all of the hryvnia increase, 492.43 billion, came from state external debt: it is denominated in foreign currency and grows dearer in hryvnias together with the exchange rate.
Of the 212.61 billion dollars, state external debt accounts for 162.52 billion (76.44%), domestic debt for 44.49 billion (20.93%), and state-guaranteed debt for 5.60 billion (2.63%). About 66.4% of the debt consists of loans from international organisations and other countries’ governments, and almost 38% is owed to the European Union. The weighted average cost of the debt in September was 4.44% a year, the Ministry of Finance said, while the weighted average time to maturity shortened to 12.87 years, Ukrrudprom notes. As a share of GDP, public and publicly guaranteed debt stood at 92.0% at the end of the second quarter (excluding the EU’s ERA loan, which will be repaid from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets), and the IMF expects public debt to reach 111.8% of GDP by the end of 2026.
What it means: The “130-fold” growth reflects, above all, the fall of the hryvnia by a factor of 8.9. Debt in foreign currency has grown 14.65-fold over 20 years and 2.17-fold since the end of 2021, and has not grown in dollars since the start of 2026.
What we know now: In September the debt fell by 64.68 billion hryvnias (0.67%) and by 2.94 billion dollars, while rising by 2.19 billion euros. It is not reported what the debt burden will be in 2027: the IMF forecast is given for the end of 2026.
Background: At the end of 2021, according to Ukraine’s Ministry of Finance, public and publicly guaranteed debt stood at 2,671.83 billion hryvnias, or 97.95 billion dollars, Ukrainian News reports.
