The world agenda on 26 October revolved around three hubs. Israel went into pre-election silence ahead of its first on-schedule vote in 38 years. The Middle East looked for a way out of escalation: Iran for the first time hosted the military and intelligence chiefs of Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey, while oil stayed near six-month highs. Moscow prepared for two summits in a row, of the gas exporters and Russia–Africa. Meanwhile the results of Sunday's elections in Serbia and Brazil acquired their first consequences, and technology companies gave reasons to talk about the cost of artificial intelligence.
Israel: an election without a clear majority
On 27 October Israel votes for the first time since the 7 October 2023 attack and the wars that followed; it is the first election held on schedule since 1988, as every previous government collapsed before completing its four-year term [1]. Final polls by three TV channels give former chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot's party 22–23 seats against 19–21 for Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud, but no bloc reaches 61: the right-wing and religious camp about 50, the opposition 52–56 and Palestinian-led parties 14–16 [1]. In that case coalition talks will decide, and Eisenkot may need the Palestinian-led parties. On the eve of the vote the Supreme Court refused to ban firearms at polling stations where Likud and Religious Zionism plan to deploy some 2,000 observers in Arab and mixed towns [2].
The Gulf: a foursome in Tehran, the Houthis and oil
Eight months after the war of the United States and Israel with Iran began on 28 February [5], Tehran hosted the first meeting of Iran, Pakistan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia; the last three are bound by the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement [4]: Riyadh sent its defence minister, Islamabad its army chief Asim Munir and Ankara its intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin [3]. The joint statement went no further than a promise to keep talking, while Iran's Security Council secretary Mohsen Rezaei said the sides had agreed that the region's security is ensured by its own countries [4]. The backdrop was Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, including on the East-West oil pipeline and Riyadh airport [5].
The oil market swung both ways in a day: in the morning Brent fell on reports of Qatari mediation, and by the evening it had risen to $117 a barrel [5][6]. The US Department of Energy said the Strategic Petroleum Reserve had fallen to 282.6 million barrels, the lowest since October 1982 [5]. The emergency stock meant for supply disruptions hit its 44-year low in the month that turned out to be the worst for attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz since 2017. For Kazakhstan this is a question of price: CPC Blend, the country's main export grade, is sold at prices linked to Brent.
Moscow: two summits and a gas agenda
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian arrived in Moscow for the summit of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum on 27 October; Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said Vladimir Putin would meet the leaders of Iran, Qatar, Mozambique and Libya on the sidelines [7][8]. Right after it, on 28–29 October, comes the Russia–Africa summit: 48 countries have confirmed attendance, 22 of them at the highest level [9]. For the duration of the summits, the authorities warned of possible restrictions on mobile internet inside the Third Ring Road on 27–29 October [10].
After the elections: Serbia and Brazil
Serbia's victorious Student List set out its foreign policy the very next day: halting arms exports to war zones, including to intermediaries supplying Ukraine, and no sanctions on Russia [11]. Overnight a crowd burst into the building of Informer TV and attacked its editor-in-chief [12]. In Brazil, defeated candidate Flavio Bolsonaro said a Supreme Court justice had barred him from leaving the country and promised to lead the opposition, although his party, according to TASS, had conceded defeat [13][14].
Technology: the cost of AI
Microsoft offered about 60,000 employees, more than a quarter of its staff, voluntary departure with severance to cut costs after investing in AI infrastructure [15]. Anthropic filed a Form S-1 with the SEC to list on Nasdaq under the ticker ANT [16], while the Swedish government that day blocked ChatGPT and Claude on government staff computers, keeping Microsoft Copilot, whose owner has signed a data-protection agreement [17]. In London the Ballon d'Or went for the first time to Harry Kane, the first Englishman to win it in 25 years [18].
What comes next
Exit polls in Israel are expected after 22:00 local time on 27 October (01:00 Astana time on 28 October) [1]; that day the gas summit opens in Moscow, and on 29 October, according to the Ukrainian ombudsman, the humanitarian operation in Oleshky, for which a ceasefire was introduced on 27 October, is due to begin [19].
