Almaty, 27 October. Halyk Finance analysts forecast an exchange rate of 490 tenge to the dollar at the end of 2026 and 515 tenge at the end of 2027, economic growth of 4.5–4.8% in 2027 and inflation slowing to 8–9%, according to the company's macroeconomic review.
The analysts link the tenge's weakening in 2027 to a gradual fall in the base rate and in oil prices, Kapital.kz reports: they expect oil output of 95 million tonnes and prices possibly falling to $75 a barrel, which would restrain export earnings. Halyk Finance expects the base rate at 14% by the end of 2027; by the end of 2026 it could fall to 15.5% if inflation keeps slowing.
The starting point is the strongest tenge in two years. At the end of the third quarter it strengthened to 440.49 to the dollar, up 12.9% since the start of the year. In the fourth quarter, Halyk Finance says, the National Bank's currency supply will remain limited: the regulator is cutting the mirroring of its gold operations by about 19%, to 0.91 trillion tenge. Inflation may accelerate to 10% at the end of the year because of a low base; in September it was 9.3%.
To reach the end-2027 forecast, a tenge that has gained 12.9% since the start of 2026 would have to lose 17%.
What it means: A major bank research house sees the tenge's current strength as temporary: by its estimate, falling rates and oil will push the rate back above 500 to the dollar within a year.
Who benefits: Exporters, above all oil companies, whose revenue in national currency rises with a weaker tenge. For importers and foreign-currency borrowers the forecast means higher costs. For holders of tenge deposits, what matters is the gap between the interest rate and the expected depreciation.
Background: On 23 October the National Bank cut the base rate to 15.75%. Mirroring means selling foreign currency from reserves in an amount equal to the bank's purchases of gold from domestic producers, so that those purchases do not move the exchange rate.
We have also reported that the National Bank cut the base rate to 15.75% and why it did not cut by a full percentage point and where the dollars come from.
