Almaty, 27 October. In September Kazakhstan's exchange offices sold 100 billion tenge worth of cash dollars, 29% less than in August and 7% less than a year earlier, according to a National Bank report highlighted by the NB Telegram channel.
Interest in roubles also fell: exchange offices sold 4.6 billion tenge worth after 6.1 billion in August. For the third month running, however, sales of roubles have exceeded purchases, whereas until July the opposite trend had held for many months, with exchange offices taking in record volumes of the Russian currency.
The September data describe a month when the tenge was at its strongest: by the end of the third quarter it had strengthened to 440.49 to the dollar, up 12.9% since the start of the year. On the first working day after the long holiday weekend, exchange trading showed the tenge continuing to weaken: the dollar closed at 457.8 tenge after trading between 453.21 and 458 during the day; the rouble was at 5.68 tenge.
What it means: When the tenge strengthens, people buy fewer cash dollars; in late October the rate turned, and demand for foreign currency may return.
Who benefits: Those who had put off buying foreign currency got the best rate in two years in September; for those holding savings in tenge, the autumn weakening eats into the gain. For importers a weaker rate makes purchases more expensive.
Background: Halyk Finance analysts expect a rate of 490 tenge to the dollar by the end of 2026 and 515 by the end of 2027, attributing the weakening to falling interest rates and oil prices.
We have also reported that Halyk Finance expects the dollar at 515 tenge by the end of 2027.
