Almaty, 30 October. The AERC research centre has cut its forecast for growth in the real money incomes of Kazakhstan’s population in 2026 from 4.5% to 2.8% and expects a further slowdown to 1.8% in 2027, according to its October Macroeconomic Review of Kazakhstan.
The 2026 economic growth forecast was lowered from 4.8% to 4.6%; for 2027 AERC expects 4.7%. It sees inflation slightly lower than before — 10.3% on average in 2026 instead of 10.4%, and 8.9% in 2027. The average dollar rate for 2026 was revised from 511.5 to 475.2 tenge, with 490.5 tenge expected in 2027. Nominal money incomes in 2026 are forecast to grow by 13.4%, 1.5 percentage points less than expected in July, owing to slower wage growth.
AERC notes signs of cooling demand — in retail trade, new housing deals and receipts of corporate income tax and social tax. In nine months the economy grew by 4.2%, according to the government, and annual inflation slowed to 9.3% in September. High oil prices, the centre writes, improve exports and the current account but thereby strengthen the tenge further, which could create serious imbalances in the medium term.
What it means: The economy is growing, but people’s incomes ever more slowly: inflation eats almost all the wage gains, and in 2027, analysts estimate, the gap will widen.
Who benefits: Importers and buyers of foreign currency gain from a strong tenge. Exporters and the budget, by contrast, lose: for every dollar earned they get fewer tenge. For households the forecast promises slow growth in purchasing power.
Background: Real incomes are money incomes adjusted for inflation: they show how many goods and services earnings can buy. AERC (Applied Economics Research Centre) is an independent research centre that publishes macroeconomic reviews quarterly. In the Address of 28 October the President instructed that the minimum wage be raised.
