Sunday, 25 October, was a day of three elections. In Brazil President Lula da Silva overturned a first-round defeat and won a fourth term. In Serbia former President Aleksandar Vučić conceded defeat to the Student List. In Bulgaria the incumbent President Iliana Yotova and Andrey Gyurov reached a run-off on record-low turnout. In the Persian Gulf the war went on with Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia and Tehran's statement that Hormuz will not return to pre-war rules, two days before Israel votes.
Brazil: a left-wing president against the right-wing tide
Lula won the run-off with 51.7% to Senator Flávio Bolsonaro's 48.2% [1] and became the first candidate in Brazil's history to win after losing the first round: on 4 October Bolsonaro had led him by 2.2 million votes [2]. The last Datafolha poll favoured his rival, voting was extended by two hours by court order, and the lead changed several times during the count [3].
The result matters more for Latin America than for Brazil itself. Lula ran as a critic of Donald Trump and a defender of the country's sovereignty; his opponent is a Trump ally and the son of a former president convicted and imprisoned for plotting a coup [22]. Lula's victory, observers note, has put the brakes on a run of right-wing wins in the region [1]. The new term begins on 5 January 2027, by which time Lula will be over 81.
The Balkans: the street came to parliament, while voters stayed at home
In Serbia the election capped almost two years of protests that began after a canopy collapsed at Novi Sad station in November 2024. According to a CeSID and Ipsos sample, the Student List led by the cardiologist Ilija Srdanović has 138 of 250 seats and Vučić's party 104 [4]. Turnout of 67.6% was the highest since 1992 [5]. Vučić said the winners would introduce sanctions against Russia by the spring [6]; the winners themselves have not yet spoken about foreign policy, and even the name of the future prime minister is unknown.
In neighbouring Bulgaria the picture was the opposite: only a fifth of voters turned out for the presidential election. Yotova, backed by Prime Minister Rumen Radev and in favour of an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine, won about 35%, the pro-Western Gyurov about 32% [7]. The interior minister noted the absence of the "usual practices of vote buying". Everything will be decided on 1 November, and the votes of supporters of Kostadin Kostadinov, who won 14%, may prove decisive [8].
The Gulf: strikes, statements and Israel's election
Saudi Arabia tried to bring its capital's airport, closed since 10 October, back into operation, and the same day the Houthis said they had struck it again, along with an air base in Khamis Mushait and a naval base in Jazan [9]. The coalition reported intercepting 10 ballistic missiles [10], and the US updated its warnings to citizens not only in Saudi Arabia but also in the UAE [11].
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that the routes through the Strait of Hormuz and the way it is managed "will no longer be the same" [12]. He said this against the background of talks with Washington, which Tehran says will continue, and of the US blockade of Iranian ports [13]. According to the US Energy Information Administration, about a fifth of world oil consumption passes through the strait [23]. The main conclusion for the oil market is that the risk in the strait will not disappear even after a ceasefire. Kazakh oil bypasses Hormuz: CPC Blend goes through the CPC terminal near Novorossiysk and KEBCO through the Transneft system; but the price of CPC Blend is tied to Brent, which last week rose above 117 dollars a barrel for the first time since March [14].
Israel goes to the polls on 27 October having put off key decisions on Gaza until after the vote: the training of 7,000 Palestinian police officers, an international stabilisation force and the arrival of a committee to run the territory [15]. Trump urged Israelis to re-elect Netanyahu [16], and Netanyahu himself threatened Iran with blows "out of all proportion" [17].
Venezuela and space
Nobel laureate María Corina Machado returned to Venezuela after more than 10 months in exile and several failed attempts to enter the country [18]. Her return creates competition for Delcy Rodríguez's interim government, which is leading the transition together with Washington. The same day China put the 28th group of satellites of its low-orbit internet constellation into orbit, 16 days after the 27th [19].
What next
On Tuesday, 27 October, Israel holds its election. On the same day, under the parties' agreements, a lull should take effect in Oleshky in the Kherson region to evacuate residents [20], and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian arrives in Moscow for a summit of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum [21]. On Sunday, 1 November, Bulgaria elects its president in a run-off. Serbia awaits official results and talks on a government.
