The second of November showed that the word “reserve” means three different things in Kazakhstan: uranium in the ground that is to be held back until 2050, bank capital that keeps growing even as profit falls, and oil that stopped in a pipeline after a drone attack on a Russian station.
2 November
- 150,000 t
uranium reserve by 2050 - 1.812 trillion tenge
banks’ nine-month profit, 11.6% lower - 11.4 trillion tenge
banks’ equity - 4:09 Moscow time
the hour pumping on Atyrau — Samara stopped - more than 80%
CPC’s share of Kazakh oil exports - 3.5 billion dollars
Qarmet modernisation to 2028
Based on the review
- 150,000 t
Uranium: a savings book in the ground
A savings deposit is good because the money lies there and is not spent until it is needed. Kazakhstan’s planned uranium reserve works much the same way. Almasadam Satkaliev, chairman of the Atomic Energy Agency, told a Kurultai committee that by 2050 the country will set aside at least 150,000 tonnes of uranium, and that the reserve itself will be tiered — from reserves in the ground to physical stocks of natural uranium and finished fuel.
What lies behind this the agency explained as early as 21 October in a reply to a BAQ.KZ request: 100,000 tonnes by 2040 and 150,000 by 2050, and not necessarily in warehouses. The main method is to fix part of the confirmed reserves and regulate how quickly they are put into production. The reason for the hurry is named in the same reply: without growth in reserves and new deposits, output after 2035 could fall to about 20,000 tonnes a year. Exports are not to be restricted: domestic consumption will be considerably below output.
The consumers of the reserve, under the plan, are the Balkhash and Moiynkum plants. Surveys at the Balkhash site are being completed, construction work is planned for 2027, and at the peak of building one plant more than 10,000 workers will be needed. The reserve here insures the future: the plant does not exist yet, but its raw material is already being booked.
Banks: capital grows, profit shrinks
The banking sector reported for nine months the same day. Net profit was 1.812 trillion tenge, 11.6% less than a year ago, while banks’ equity rose 7.5% since the start of the year to 11.4 trillion tenge. A bank’s safety margin is precisely its capital: the money with which it answers for its risks. It grows while profit shrinks.
The decline, however, is slowing: after eight months it was 13.6%. Halyk Research analysts saw the cause back in the summer in two decisions: since September 2025 minimum reserve requirements have been rising — the share of deposits a bank must hold at the National Bank and cannot lend out — and from 1 January 2026 the corporate income tax rate was raised. In the analysts’ words, both decisions have a negative effect on profitability. The third stage of the reserve-requirement increase was scheduled for September 2026.
Lending to large business fell 0.9% in September to 5 trillion tenge, and 8.7% since the start of the year; the ARDFM explained this by a large repayment at one bank. The share of loans overdue by more than 90 days fell to 3.9%.
Oil: no reserve, only a route
With oil it is the other way round: a stock that can be put in the ground cannot be invented here, and access to buyers rests on a few pipes. The Energy Ministry said that pumping on the Atyrau — Samara pipeline was stopped at 4:09 Moscow time after a drone attack on the Samara production-dispatch hub, and that resumption is expected soon. For uranium the reserve is designed 24 years ahead; for oil on this route, for the coming evening — which is how long, according to a Reuters source, pumping was expected to take to resume.
The Samara station, according to Ukrainian monitoring channels and the outlet Astra, was hit for the fifth time in a month; the fire is known from the same sources, and the reports reviewed contain no confirmation from Transneft. The main export route for Kazakh oil is the CPC: it carries more than 80% of shipments, Reuters recalls; Atyrau — Samara is a separate route. How much oil failed to reach the station and whether pumping had resumed by the morning of 3 November is not stated in the sources. We reported the stoppage that same evening.
Metallurgy: a margin earned through losses
A reserve can also be an accounting one. At a meeting with the Qarmet workforce in Temirtau the President said the plant had overcome a period of multibillion losses and turned a net profit on revenue of 1.1 trillion tenge, and that 3.5 billion dollars would go into modernisation by 2028. We reported this in more detail. Here the safety margin is profit that came after years of multibillion losses.
Different terms
On Monday it became clear that reserves have different terms. Uranium in the ground is counted to 2050, bank capital by the monthly ARDFM reports, metallurgists’ profit by the year’s results, and the work of the export route through Samara that day depended on a single night.
