3 November in Kazakhstan: money and deadlines

On 3 November three money stories played out in Kazakhstan. The 20 billion tenge for the women’s mortgage was gone within hours, the government approved a plan of 96 measures worth 6.5 trillion tenge, and Tengizchevroil must produce a third more oil in the fourth quarter than in the third to meet its annual plan. None of these stories has ended, and each has a deadline by which it will become clear whether the promises match the figures.

Limit: twenty billion by four in the afternoon

Otbasy Bank closed intake for the second tranche of the women’s mortgage Umai on 3 November at 16:00: the 20-billion-tenge limit was gone in a day, with 850 applications. By 15:00 the bank had accepted 524 applications for 12.5 billion, and the remaining 7.5 billion went in the last hour. The money comes from the Asian Development Bank: under an April agreement it provides Otbasy Bank with 90 billion tenge for Umai and the Green Mortgage, of which 9 billion went to the first tranche and 20 billion to the second. The tranche more than doubled, yet intake ended at the same hour as on 31 August.

The preliminary approval the participants received is not yet a mortgage. It is valid for a month, and within that time a woman must find an apartment and submit a loan application; on the first day 390 of the 850 women did so. The bank promises the rest later stages when new tranches arrive, but gives no dates. The limit has another side: it turns the programme into a race for speed, and the queue outside the Almaty branch showed it better than any statistic.

Today at 10:00 the Kurultai takes up ratification of another Asian Development Bank loan, for the programme of fiscal management and financial-sector reforms. The announcement gives no amount, and the loan has nothing to do with the Umai mortgage.

Plan: forty million tonnes and ninety-six measures

Over nine months Tengizchevroil produced 26.6 million tonnes of oil, 3.9 million less than a year ago. In the third quarter output was 10 million tonnes, about 109,000 tonnes a day, 19% above the first-half daily average. But the year has a plan: the Ministry of Energy named in July a target of up to 40 million tonnes, and to reach it the company must produce about 146,000 tonnes a day in the fourth quarter, a third more than in the third. Across the country, output in October rose 8% to 8.56 million tonnes.

The government meanwhile approved the draft National Plan for implementing the Address: 96 measures in 12 areas, about 6.5 trillion tenge from the National Fund for the People’s Construction programme. The Prime Minister told officials to submit the bills to the Kurultai on time and to work out the funding of every item carefully. The government approved a plan of 96 measures worth 6.5 trillion tenge and the same day ordered that how to pay for each be worked out. That is the usual order of things: a plan is drawn up so that money can be raised for it. But both the plan for the Address and the plan for oil have a number and a way to reach it, and the day when they meet has not been named.

Remainder: what the owner gets

The third story is about what is left with the owner of the money. The Agency for Regulation and Development of the Financial Market changed how the buyout amount is calculated for pension annuity contracts (we reported on this earlier in the day): when the insurer is changed, it now includes the insurer’s investment income. Previously a client could be offered part of the money at once as a payment for switching, but that left a smaller sum to transfer and payments under the new contract fell. The new rules keep the income inside the annuity funds; the Agency stresses that it is not about handing this income out.

Banks counted the remainder differently. Net profit of second-tier banks for nine months was 1.812 trillion tenge, 11.6% less than a year earlier. By Tengizchevroil’s accounts the remainder after taxes and royalties is also thinner than revenue: of $21.99 billion in revenue, $2.15 billion became profit, while participants were allocated $7.8 billion, more than was earned in the year: retained earnings fell from $35.2 billion to $29.5 billion. For Lukoil, which owns 5% of the partnership, that is $0.39 billion by shares; and on 3 November Reuters reported that a consortium of Todd Boehly is preparing a securities swap for Lukoil’s foreign assets. Whether it includes the Kazakh stakes in Karachaganak, Tengiz and CPC is unclear from the report.

Tashkent: numbers that do not match

The day also brought numbers that do not yet add up. After the poisoning of young footballers from Karaganda in Tashkent, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Health on 2 November spoke of 17 hospitalised, Astana TV wrote about 21, and Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Health on 3 November counted 20 patients: two discharged, 18 stable. The prosecutor’s office of the Chilanzar district opened a case under a sanitary article, and laboratory results have not been published. Until they are, the cause can only be called preliminary: Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Health diagnosed everyone with “acute diarrhoea”, while Kazakhstan’s health minister speaks of food poisoning.

What next

Today at 10:00 the Kurultai considers the veterinary amendments and the Asian Development Bank loan, and at 11:00 the government holds a press conference on the real sector. Otbasy Bank has not yet named a date for the next Umai tranche. On 21 November the OFAC licence for negotiations on selling Lukoil’s foreign assets expires, and on 29 November maslikhat elections are held, including in Astana, where lists of seven parties and 101 candidates are registered. None of these figures is final yet: each awaits its date — the next tranche, the fourth quarter, discharge from hospital, test results.