Astana, November 6. Oil production in Kazakhstan will peak at 109 million tonnes in 2035 and then slowly decline to 74 million tonnes by 2050, according to the KAZENERGY National Energy Report 2026, presented in Astana on November 6.
The report is the seventh edition and its full version runs to 322 pages; the KAZENERGY Association, which unites the country’s oil, gas and energy companies, prepares it together with the international analytics company S&P Global. It sets out S&P Global’s base scenario, the most likely course of events by the analysts’ calculation, not a commitment or plan of the state. KAZENERGY Association Chairman Serikkali Brekeshev, opening the presentation, named the sector’s priorities as reliable export routes, oil refining and petrochemicals, infrastructure modernisation and conditions for long-term investment. The report’s findings, he added, could feed the agenda of the WPC Energy Congress to be held in Astana in 2028.
Output rests on three megaprojects, Tengiz, Kashagan and Karachaganak: their share of national output rose from about 50% in 2015 to 70% in 2025. In 2025 production of liquid hydrocarbons, meaning crude oil and gas condensate, reached a record 99.6 million tonnes, 13.5% more than a year earlier; about 87% was crude oil and 13% condensate. The main driver was the Future Growth Project at Tengiz: it started in January 2025, earlier than expected, and Tengiz output rose from 27.8 to 39.0 million tonnes. The authors name the Kashagan expansion as the key driver of growth to 2035. The share of the “big three” will peak at 73% in 2030 and fall to about 62% by 2050. Output at other fields dropped by about 25% in 2016–2025 but is expected to stay relatively stable; some new facilities of the 2040s will largely offset the fall at mature fields.
The exact base-scenario figures are 109.4 million tonnes in 2035 and 74.5 million tonnes in 2050. The optimistic scenario gives a peak of 120.3 million tonnes in 2035 and a decline to 99.6 million tonnes by 2050. In the pessimistic scenario the maximum is only 103.3 million tonnes as early as 2027, after which output falls to 52.8 million tonnes. Under the base scenario, OPEC+ policy will not seriously restrain output in Kazakhstan over the forecast period.
The weak spot is exploration. Recoverable oil reserves (categories A+B+C1) fell by 10.5% between 1 January 2016 and 1 January 2025. Investment in the extractive sector has shrunk since 2019 from 12.3 to 3.3 billion dollars: big investment programmes ended, and new projects are less attractive to investors. Restoring reserves to the earlier level, the report says, will not be easy; much depends on the results of electronic subsoil-use auctions after the 2025 reforms.
Gas is shown as a continuation of the oil story. Gross gas output rose 15.8% in 2025 to a record 68.2 billion cubic metres after the Third-Generation Plant at Tengiz started and ramped up. End consumers received 21.6 billion cubic metres, 1.9% more than a year earlier; apparent gas consumption fell 2.1%, while power generation and the housing sector accounted for 94% of the growth in demand. According to the outcome of the S&P Global presentation, gas will keep its key role in balancing growing renewable generation, and world oil demand will fall by only about 6% by 2050.
What it means: The 109-million-tonne peak gives the sector ten years of growth, but it rests on the megaprojects, above all Kashagan: reserves fell 10.5% in nine years, and investment in the extractive sector dropped almost fourfold. The scenarios differ widely: the peak ranges from 103 to 120 million tonnes, and output in 2050 from 53 to 100 million tonnes.
Who benefits: The state and the megaproject participants, since growth to 2035 is backed by the expansion; oil refining and petrochemicals, which Brekeshev called a priority. New exploration projects carry the risk: whether investors come depends on subsoil-use terms.
Background: S&P Global is an American analytics and ratings company; its energy division makes forecasts for oil, gas and power markets. The “Future Growth Project” (FGP) is the programme to raise output at Tengiz run by Tengizchevroil. The “Third-Generation Plant” is one of the key components of the FGP; it brought extra volumes of Tengiz gas on stream. The A+B+C1 reserve categories are the Kazakh classification; in the report they roughly correspond to proven and probable reserves in the international one.
We also wrote about the energy minister’s production plans for 2027 and that without attacks on the CPC output in 2026 would have reached 101 million tonnes.
