Three rounds of negotiations will take place over the next ten days. Delegations of Ukraine, Russia and the United States will meet in Abu Dhabi on November 10–11, Washington is talking to Iran through intermediaries, and at the APEC summit in Shenzhen on November 18–19 US President Donald Trump expects to see Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. For Kazakhstan, what matters in this series is the export oil pipeline, the Caspian Sea and the oil price.
Diplomatic calendar
- November 10–11
trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi - since February
the first trilateral meeting - 5
members of the Russian delegation on the Kremlin’s list - 20
people in the Iron Gate task force - November 18–19
APEC summit in Shenzhen - 3.5 million tonnes
Kazakhstan’s production losses from attacks on the export pipeline
Based on data from Bloomberg, Reuters, CENTCOM and Interfax
- November 10–11
Abu Dhabi: delegations of higher rank
US special envoy Steve Witkoff said Washington would bring the delegations of Ukraine and Russia together in Abu Dhabi on November 10–11 to discuss ending the war, post-war security agreements and de-escalation, Reuters reported. It is the first trilateral meeting since February, another Trump envoy, Jared Kushner, confirmed on November 5, the portal Charter 97 reported.
Russia will send a delegation of higher rank than in earlier rounds. It will be led by presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky. Its members are Deputy Foreign Ministers Sergei Ryabkov and Mikhail Galuzin, military intelligence chief Igor Kostyukov and senior General Staff officer Yury Zhigarlovsky; the lineup was named by Bloomberg, citing Interfax, which quoted Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. In Bloomberg’s assessment, such a lineup may signal readiness to discuss both political and battlefield issues. Ukraine’s delegation will be led by Foreign Intelligence Service chief Rustem Umerov; it includes head of the presidential office Kyrylo Budanov and David Arakhamia, who leads the president’s party in parliament. Earlier some outlets wrote that Budanov would lead the delegation, but a senior official answered journalists’ question: “No changes so far”, and a senior EU official confirmed that Umerov would be in charge, Kyiv Independent reported.
The Europeans will join the table as well. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said on November 8 that they would take part in the talks in Abu Dhabi and added that no one would speak on their behalf, Euronews reported.
The sides’ positions on the main question diverge. According to the Kremlin, the talks will discuss a security mechanism for Russia and Ukraine after the conflict ends. European officials insist that Russia must stop the war before any talk of the continent’s wider security; Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called it dangerous that Russia wants to begin a conversation about a new security infrastructure in Europe, Bloomberg says. In an interview with CBS’s 60 Minutes, Trump said he was very close to a deal that would give Ukraine a “little bit different shape”, without offering specifics, Reuters reported. The Moscow Times writes that Putin has begun demanding more Ukrainian territory in addition to Donbas in exchange for ending the war.
Iran: blockade and conversation
With Iran, diplomacy runs in parallel with pressure. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on November 8 that the sides are not on the verge of a breakthrough: he called Iran’s demands unacceptable and in places “outrageous and ridiculous”, Israel National News reported. Trump said new strikes on Iran are “highly unlikely” if talks on the nuclear programme and on reopening the Strait of Hormuz progress, CNN reported. Qatar is mediating.
On Saturday, November 7, the pressure grew. US Central Command (CENTCOM), on the order of its commander Admiral Brad Cooper, created a task force called Iron Gate. Its job is to hinder Iran from moving advanced weapons, sanctioned materials and illicit revenue “across Iran’s land borders and the Caspian Sea”, Stars and Stripes reported. The task force has about 20 military and civilian staff and is based in Tampa, Florida, Gulf News specified. The naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman was announced in July, and the new task force complements it with land and the Caspian, The Tribune notes. Iran called the creation of the task force another failed attempt to bring about economic collapse, Tehran Times reported. Gulf News adds that some advisers, according to NBC News, urged Trump to resume major combat operations before the new Congress takes office in January.
Shenzhen: a meeting without an agenda
The third table exists so far only as an intention. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning confirmed for the first time on November 4 that China “is maintaining communication with relevant parties” on a possible meeting of the leaders of China, Russia and the United States, Bloomberg reported; the meeting could take place at the APEC summit on November 18–19. Neither a date nor an agenda has been set, The Korea Times notes. On November 8 Trump confirmed he would go to the summit and said he thought one of the meetings would be with Putin and Xi Jinping, and that they would discuss disarmament and ending the war in Iran, Reuters reported.
Analysts do not expect substantive talks from such a meeting. Yun Sun, director of the China programme at the Washington-based Stimson Center, believes the three leaders’ interests diverge and China wants a picture: it “wants the image”, she said. In her assessment, Russia will try to use the summit to nudge China and the United States closer to Moscow’s positions on Ukraine, while China will not discuss arms control, Ukraine or Iran beyond its usual line that wars should end.
What this means for Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan is not at any of the three tables, but the war discussed in Abu Dhabi has already affected its oil. Production losses from drone attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) will amount to 3.5 million tonnes, Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov estimated, Reuters reported. Backup routes were on the agenda again in early November: on November 3 the Energy Ministry reported the resumption of transport along Atyrau–Samara, and on November 4 Kazakhstan was awaiting Russia’s reply on resuming exports via Druzhba, Interfax wrote. De-escalation is named among the topics in Abu Dhabi; attacks on the CPC have already happened, and the minister links the cut in the production plan to them.
The Caspian is named in the task of the American group. The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, the Middle Corridor from China to Europe, runs across it. Kazakhstan wants to link the Armenian TRIPP corridor with this route: Deputy Prime Minister and Transport Minister Assel Zhanassova discussed this on November 6 in Yerevan, we wrote. The description of the group names Iran’s land borders and the Caspian Sea; CENTCOM did not explain which littoral states and ports are meant, and Kazakhstan is not mentioned in these reports.
What is left outside the brackets
Each table has a question without an answer. What “shape” of Ukraine does Trump have in mind, and does it match what Russia demands? How does Washington intend to distinguish Iranian cargo on the Caspian from the rest, and will that affect cargo passing through Kazakh ports? Will the meeting in Shenzhen take place without an approved agenda, and what will be discussed there? For Kazakhstan the answers lie on one map: the CPC, the Caspian and the oil price. The price adds uncertainty: according to Interfax, Brent is ending the week with its biggest weekly drop since 2020.
