The world agenda on 27 October converged on two capitals. Moscow hosted the eighth summit of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum, on the sidelines of which Vladimir Putin held talks with the president of Iran, the Emir of Qatar and African leaders; the president of Finland and the prime minister of Norway also phoned the Kremlin [1][24][2][25]. In Israel voting ended in the Knesset election, and by the morning of 28 October exit polls showed a country without a clear majority [3]. All three stories continue lines our issue followed throughout the past week.
Gas: exporters against "moving away from gas"
The summit of the GECF, an organisation founded 25 years ago that unites 12 major gas exporters, ended with the Moscow Declaration [1]. Its aim is to establish gas as a fuel of the energy transition: the document speaks of growing energy demand, including from data centres and artificial intelligence, and of countries' "sovereign right" over their resources [1]. The countries agreed to consult more on security of supply and voiced concern at how conflicts in the Middle East are unsettling the gas market [4]. The ministerial meeting that prepared the document had opened a day earlier [5].
Central Asia had its own storyline at the summit: Turkmenistan took part as an invited state, represented by Turkmengaz chairman Maksat Babayev [6]. Kazakhstan is not a member of the forum and has no obligations under the declaration.
On the sidelines Putin met Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Russia, Putin said, will fulfil its obligations on joint projects, and trade between the two countries grew 10.4% in eight months [7]. Pezeshkian thanked Putin for political, military and economic support [8]. The Iranian president's visit to Moscow had been announced in advance; it came in a week when Tehran held a security dialogue with Turkey, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia [9][10].
Ukraine: a call from the north before Abu Dhabi
Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre spoke to Putin for an hour and a half, on their own initiative and in coordination with Kyiv and Washington [2][11]. The idea was born on 20 October in Oslo, where both leaders met Volodymyr Zelensky and US special envoy Steve Witkoff, after which Witkoff went to see Putin in St Petersburg [11][12]. The Kremlin said the sides welcomed the agreement to resume trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine and the US in Abu Dhabi in the first half of November; Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk gave a provisional date of 4 November [2][13]. The positions did not converge: Støre spoke of serious differences, and the Kremlin of peace being possible only with Russia's "legitimate interests" taken into account [2][14].
Meanwhile a humanitarian operation continues near Oleshky on the left bank of Kherson region; the ceasefire there, according to the Russian side, has been extended until the evening of 1 November [15]. And in Washington, as The New York Times reported, the Trump administration is considering lifting sanctions on the Russian Direct Investment Fund [16] — another step on an economic track that already includes a deal on Russian diesel fuel supplies to the US.
Israel: the largest party without a coalition
The 27 October election was Israel's first since the Hamas attack of 7 October 2023 and the first in many years held on schedule [3][17]. According to exit polls by three TV channels, Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud became the largest party, ahead of Yashar, led by former chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, but neither the ruling bloc nor the opposition reaches 61 seats; in different versions each has between 49 and 53, and in two channels' updated exit polls exactly 51 each [3][18][23][26]. Turnout, according to the Central Elections Committee, was 77.7%, the highest since 1999 [23]. Arab parties with 17–19 seats hold the balance, although both blocs include parties that have vowed not to work with them [19]. For Netanyahu this means losing the majority that stood at 68 seats in the outgoing Knesset [3].
Who forms Israel's government also bears on the course of the war in the region: Iran, the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices, and with them the price of CPC Blend, are all stories our issue follows separately.
Brazil: the loser has left
Flávio Bolsonaro, who lost the presidential election to Lula da Silva, flew to the United States with his family despite a court ban on leaving the country, CNN Brasil reported, while according to the Associated Press the State Department allowed him in and will issue visas [20][21]. A day earlier Bolsonaro had said the court had taken his passport and that he would lead the opposition to Lula [22]. Some Brazilian lawmakers are now demanding that he be stripped of his Senate seat [21].
What comes next
The Russia–Africa summit will be held in Moscow on 28–29 October. Talks on Ukraine in Abu Dhabi are expected in early November. In Israel, after the official count, President Isaac Herzog will begin consultations on whom to ask to form a government.
