27 October: on the eve of the address — taxes, social aid and oil with China

  • 27 October

    • 12 million tonnes — target capacity of the Shymkent refinery instead of 6 million
    • 2026–2028 — years for which gains on digital assets would be exempt from income tax
    • 222,312 — recipients of targeted social assistance on 1 October
    • 6.17 trillion tenge — oil and gas sector payments to the budget in nine months
    • 457.8 tenge — dollar rate at close on 27 October
    • 64.2% — gasification rate at the start of the year

    Based on this issue's materials

Akorda, residence of the President of Kazakhstan
Archive photo. Source: jtstewart / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 2.0

Tuesday 27 October was the first working day after the long holiday weekend and the last day before the annual address to the nation by the President of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev: Akorda announced that the broadcast would start on 28 October at 11:00, and that straight after the address the Head of State would leave for Turkey for three days [1][2]. The day's agenda therefore had two layers. The government and ministries put out decisions they had prepared — tax amendments, new social aid rules, agreements with CNPC — while public life tested how decisions of past years are working, from heating in Ekibastuz to Development Bank loans.

Taxes and social aid: the rules for next year

The day's most practical decision was discussed in the Kurultai. Its finance and budget committee reviewed amendments to the Tax Code, in force since 1 January 2026: gains on digital assets sold through Kazakh providers would be exempt from personal income tax for 2026–2028, Altyn Visa holders from income, property and land taxes, people with disabilities would get wider deductions, and small businesses are promised a "clean slate" mechanism [3][23]. The proposals have been known since the summer and were put out for public consultation in September, but the amendments have not yet been submitted to the Kurultai, and deputies immediately asked what matters most to citizens — how the changes will affect the prices of food, utilities and air tickets [3]. The digital asset relief continues the line set a week earlier when the major crypto exchange Kraken entered the AIFC [4].

The second line is social. The Labour Ministry said that from 1 January 2027 targeted social assistance will take account of a family's loans, deposits and spending, not only its official income; in drafting the rules the ministry studied the experience of five countries [5][24][6]. This continues the reform that figures published a day earlier pointed to: the number of aid recipients drawn into employment measures more than halved in five years, and from 2027 taking part will be compulsory for those able to work [7]. Both measures point the same way: aid should go to those with no other means and should be tied to work.

Oil and gas: China, the north and the budget

The oil and gas block of the day opened with a working group with CNPC chaired by First Deputy Prime Minister Nurlybek Nalibayev: the sides discussed higher oil supplies, contract extensions and expanding the Shymkent refinery from 6 to 12 million tonnes a year [8][25][9]. The agreement on the plant was reached during the Head of State's visit to China in autumn 2025, and a week earlier KMG and CNPC agreed to design an expansion of the pipelines feeding it [10]. The talk is now about timing and next steps, but no dates or costs have been made public.

The day's figures explain why oil remains central: according to data published on 27 October, the oil and gas sector paid 6.17 trillion tenge into the budget in nine months [11]. Gas is a different story. The Energy Ministry restated its goal of 80% gasification by 2035, while in the coal-heated north AstanaGaz KMG scheduled hearings for December on extending the Saryarka gas pipeline; the first gas there is expected by 2030 via the Russian town of Ishim [12][26][13].

Testing past decisions

Several stories of the day concerned not new decisions but how old ones work. The Ekibastuz heat and power plant, whose breakdown in November 2022 left the city without heat in minus 30°C, enters the winter after repairs with almost ten times fewer outages [14][27][15]. The road to Rakhmanov Springs in East Kazakhstan, begun in 2017, has finally been finished; at the same time ministry statistics showed that funding for maintaining national roads fell from 82% of the standard in 2023 to 66% in 2025 [16][28][17]. The Development Bank of Kazakhstan confirmed that since August it has stopped lending to private schools but is keeping an approved 12.5 billion tenge, and is still reviewing applications from private clinics [18][29].

The environment produced a story that crossed borders: a resident of Ust-Kamenogorsk picketed Glencore's headquarters in Switzerland and proposed that the owner of Kazzinc, which accounts for 44% of the city's recorded emissions, fund independent air monitoring [19][30].

The outside world

The day's foreign agenda was about preparing visits. Akorda published a telegram from Donald Trump in which the US president wrote that he expected to meet Tokayev at the G20 summit in December [20][31]. The US State Department meanwhile keeps Kazakhstan at the first, lowest risk level for travel — below France and Germany [21][32]. And on 28–30 October, straight after the address, the Head of State will visit Turkey and attend the summit of the Organization of Turkic States [2]. Markets met the first working day with a weaker tenge: the rate closed at 457.8 to the dollar, and exchange offices sold 29% less currency [22].

What comes next

Wednesday's main event is the address: in it the President sets the government's tasks for the coming period, and many of Tuesday's decisions — tax amendments, social aid rules, gasification — will receive either confirmation or new deadlines. The Tax Code amendments still have to be submitted to the Kurultai. The Saryarka hearings in North Kazakhstan take place on 7–8 December, and the G20 summit in December.

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