World Bank expects Brent at $91, Kazakhstan’s budget assumes $70

Washington, 28 October. The World Bank expects Brent crude to average $91 a barrel in 2026, up from $69 in 2025, and to ease to $79 in 2027, while commodity prices as a whole will rise by 23% this year, according to the bank’s new report on commodity markets.

The World Bank names the conflict in the Middle East, which has drained global oil inventories, as the main cause. Global oil supply, the bank estimates, will fall by 5.2% in 2026 — the steepest drop in more than four decades outside the 2020 global recession. Consumption will also fall, by 2.5%, the third-largest contraction on record after 2020 and 1980: high prices are curbing demand, and electrification, especially in China, is reducing oil use. Even so, production still lags consumption, so the market keeps drawing on stocks and remains exposed to new disruptions.

Energy prices as a whole will rise by 32% in 2026 after three years of decline. Food prices will rise by about 10% in 2026 and another 7% in 2027, 18% in total; the bank attributes this to disrupted grain shipments, the threat El Niño poses to harvests, and expensive fuel and fertiliser. Metals will rise by 25%, with aluminium, copper and tin reaching record prices on demand from renewable energy, electric vehicles and data centres. Precious metals will gain 40%.

The forecast is a baseline that assumes conflicts do not intensify. In an adverse scenario, if escalation in the Middle East coincides with continued strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, attacks on grain ships in the Black Sea and a strong El Niño, Brent could average $105 in 2027, and food prices could be 12% above the baseline and exceed their 2022 level. “Commodity markets are being hit by several major shocks at once,” said Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s Deputy Chief Economist.

For Kazakhstan the forecast matters above all because of the oil price. The government built the draft national budget for 2027–2029 on a base price of $70 a barrel, drawing on the international organisations’ consensus forecast of $70.3; the 2026–2028 budget assumed $60. The World Bank’s 2027 forecast of $79 is above the budget price, and in the adverse scenario the gap reaches $35. Kazakhstan sells most of its oil as CPC Blend through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, and its price is tied to Brent: in September and October CPC Blend was on some days even more expensive than the benchmark.

What it means: The World Bank believes expensive oil will persist into 2027, though slightly cheaper. For Kazakhstan this means a safety margin: the budget is based on oil cheaper than the forecast, but the same forecast promises higher prices for food, part of which the country imports.

Who benefits: Exporters of oil and metals, including Kazakhstan, stand to earn more export revenue and more income for the budget and the National Fund if prices stay above the budget assumption. Importers of energy and food and poor countries with heavy debts face the opposite — rising costs; to support them the World Bank is making $50–60 billion available through existing instruments.

Background: The Commodity Markets Outlook is the World Bank’s report on price forecasts for oil, gas, metals, food and fertiliser; it is published twice a year, in April and October. In its April report the bank expected Brent to average $86 in 2026.

We have also reported that CPC Blend became more expensive than Brent.