The world’s day on 28 October was shaped by three stories that have been running for more than a week. At the Russia–Africa summit in Moscow, Russia looked for new partners and new ways of settling payments outside the dollar [1][2]. Talks between Russia, the United States and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi, discussed since mid-October, got a time frame — not before 4 November [3]. And Israel, which voted on 27 October, finished counting and found that neither bloc had won a majority [4]. Against this background the World Bank published a forecast under which expensive oil and rising food prices will stay with the world into 2027 [5], while Spain declared three days of mourning after its deadliest rail disaster in many years [6].
Russia and Africa: trade and payments without the dollar
Russian President Vladimir Putin told the summit in Moscow that Russia’s trade with Africa had grown 1.5-fold since 2022 and exceeded $27 billion [1]. The main practical topic was payments. According to Putin, the A7 cross-border settlement system in digital currencies is sovereign, independent of external restrictions and open to African countries [2]. The point of the offer is to give partners a way to pay Russia without going through banks exposed to Western sanctions.
Ukraine: talks after 4 November and without Europe
Yuri Ushakov, an aide to the Russian president, said the trilateral talks between Russia, the United States and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi would take place after 4 November and that their date would also depend on the situation on the battlefield [3]. There will be no European negotiators at the table, he said: agreement exists only on a trilateral format [7]. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said mutual security guarantees for Russia and Ukraine would be discussed in Abu Dhabi [8]. The day before, Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre spoke with Putin for an hour and a half [9]; Ushakov replied that there was no talk yet of them acting as Europe’s negotiators.
Israel: 53 seats and Herzog’s choice
With almost all votes counted, Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc wins 53 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot 48, and Arab parties 19 [4]. A majority requires 61 seats, and no one has it. Turnout was 77.7%, the highest since 1999; according to the Anadolu agency, more than 500,000 special ballots were still uncounted at the time of the first results [10]. The decision now rests with President Isaac Herzog: he will consult the parties and choose who gets the first chance to form a government; Herzog has also raised the possibility of a national unity government to avoid another election [4]. A day earlier exit polls had given each bloc 51 seats [11].
Oil, food and money
In its commodity markets report, the World Bank expects commodity prices to rise by 23% in 2026 and Brent to average $91 a barrel, against $69 a year earlier, and $79 in 2027 [5]. Food will rise by about 10% this year and 7% next. The Strait of Hormuz remains the main source of risk: Iran has threatened to act from 1 November against tankers of South Korea’s Sinokor, the largest owner of supertankers, whose ships carried about 37% of the oil that passed through the strait in September [12]. At the same time Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran was reviewing, through mediators, proposals for a seven-day plan with the United States: to reopen Hormuz and resume talks if Washington ends hostilities, lifts the naval blockade and unfreezes Iranian assets [13]. The US Federal Reserve kept its rate at 3.75–4%; the decision passed 10 to 2, with both dissenters favouring a rate rise [14].
Spain in mourning, Brazil in dispute
The death toll from the collision of two high-speed trains in Spain’s Toledo province rose to 68 [6]. The Iryo and Renfe trains were carrying more than 500 people; high-speed services between Madrid and Andalusia were suspended, and 29, 30 and 31 October were declared days of national mourning [15]. It is the country’s second major high-speed train crash in a year [16]. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan was among those who sent condolences to King Felipe VI of Spain [17].
In Brazil the saga of Flávio Bolsonaro, who lost the election, continues. His plane landed in Florida even though a court had barred him from leaving the country, and in a letter published in part by the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo he declared himself the elected president [18][19]. The 25 October election was won by incumbent president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. US President Donald Trump declined to comment on the statement.
What comes next
The Abu Dhabi talks are expected after 4 November; according to Ushakov, the make-up of the Russian delegation will be decided soon. In Israel the president’s consultations with the parties begin. From 1 November Iran promises to act against Sinokor tankers in Hormuz, which will directly affect the oil market on which Kazakhstan’s revenues depend.
