The National Bank of Kazakhstan published the results of its latest macroeconomic survey on 15 October. Experts raised their 2026 forecast for Brent crude from $82.7 to $88.4 a barrel and improved their forecasts for inflation and the tenge exchange rate.
For 2027 the Brent expectation rose from $75 to $80 a barrel. The median forecast for the base rate at the end of 2026 is 15.9% (previously 16%); for 2027 it rose from 13% to 13.3% and for 2028 from 10.5% to 11.5%.
Inflation forecasts improved across the whole horizon; experts expect total inflation to reach 9.5% by the end of 2026 (in September it fell to 9.3%). Analysts also improved their forecast for the dollar–tenge rate across the whole horizon. The survey was conducted from 1 to 7 October.
For comparison, according to Investing.com, Brent is now trading at around $105 a barrel.
The National Bank reminded that the survey does not contain the regulator's own forecasts: it is a review of independent opinions. The National Bank's base rate meeting is set for 23 October.
