19 October in review: what changed for Kazakhstan

Graphic: a day dial with the words Day in review — VRK News graphic. AI-generated

Monday, 19 October, was a day when foreign policy, energy and social affairs all produced news for Kazakhstan at once. In Samarkand, Foreign Minister Mukhtar Tleuberdi met US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, while a neighbour in the region signed deals with the Americans worth billions of dollars. Statistics showed that gas output in September collapsed to a 15-year low and that the state is investing less in the economy directly. In the evening the security services reported an attempt to provoke oil workers' protests in Mangystau, and in Aktobe metallurgists protested over wages.

Below is what follows from all this and what to watch in the coming weeks.

19 October in numbers: gas, Uzbekistan–US deals, budget investment, the Aktobe protest — VRK News graphic, based on this issue. AI-generated

Diplomacy: Samarkand, Washington and the Leningrad region

The C5+1 meeting in Samarkand brought together the ministers of the five Central Asian countries and the US Secretary of State. Afterwards Kazakhstan's Foreign Ministry said the sides had confirmed their course towards an expanded strategic partnership, while Rubio expressed interest in a full-scale visit to Kazakhstan soon after the G20 summit. In the same days Uzbekistan signed 54 agreements worth $12 billion with American companies, from engines for Uzbekistan Airways to the mining and processing of tungsten, molybdenum and rhenium.

For Kazakhstan the Uzbek deals are both a benchmark and competition. Washington has come to the region above all for critical minerals and infrastructure, and Rubio described the benefits as mutual. What the Secretary of State's future visit will offer Kazakhstan is not yet known: the Foreign Ministry has not named a date.

On the same day Kassym-Jomart Tokayev received Leningrad Region Governor Alexander Drozdenko: trade with the region exceeded $400 million, and the governor himself, at a round table in Astana, named his region the general contractor for Kazakhstan's nuclear power plant through the Titan-2 concern and promised to train specialists in Sosnovy Bor. The American and Russian agendas run in parallel, and each concerns strategic sectors: minerals and the atom.

Energy: gas, sulphur and bitumen

The most worrying figure of the day was 0.5 billion cubic metres of commercial gas in September, the lowest for at least 15 years. The reason is scheduled maintenance at Karachaganak: West Kazakhstan region accounts for more than 80% of the country's commercial gas, and the shutdown of one field cut total output 4.3-fold in a month. Over nine months gas production was 91.9% of last year's level and oil 91.7%.

The figure shows how much the country's gas balance depends on a few large projects: maintenance at one of them shows up in all the statistics. Hence the attention to new sources of gas and the disputes over the big fields.

One such dispute concerns sulphur at Kashagan. The Ecology Ministry changed the method for calculating the volumes of sulphur that may be stored in the open air, removing the direct requirement to take into account the area, capacity and operating conditions of sulphur storage pads. The order does not mention NCOC, but the volume of sulphur storage is the main subject of the dispute over a 2.3 trillion tenge fine.

The third energy story is the proposal to allow bitumen exports outside the EAEU. As recently as February the Energy Ministry intended to ban such exports; now it speaks of seasonal demand, spare capacity and the need to keep refineries loaded.

Note. Commercial gas is gas that has been cleaned and prepared for delivery to trunk pipelines and consumers. It differs from raw gas, which is produced together with oil: at large fields a significant share of raw gas is reinjected into the reservoir to maintain pressure and oil output, and it never becomes commercial gas. That is why growth in raw gas production does not always mean more gas for consumers.

Economy: the state is investing less

Industrial output over nine months grew by 2.9%: manufacturing added 8.6% and machine building 22.8%, with passenger cars providing almost half of that growth. Mining shrank by 4.3%, reflecting lower oil and gas production.

Fixed capital investment rose by 7% to 16.1 trillion tenge, but behind the growth lies a change in sources. Direct budget investment fell from 3.2 trillion to 2.3 trillion tenge and its share from 23% to 14%, while "other borrowed funds" rose by 882 billion tenge. Part of the decline is explained by the end of the Comfortable School programme, and growth itself is slowing: in September investment rose by only 0.7%.

Against this background, the Data Center Valley project in Ekibastuz shows how expectations are changing: the 215 MW first phase has been fully reserved, but the ministry put the expected investment at $5 billion, half the amount of the June agreements.

Social affairs and security

The family welfare assessment calculator in eGov Mobile, whose launch was announced the day before, stopped working a day after it was launched. The transition to targeted state support from 1 January 2027 depends on this service, so the failure matters more than a mere technical glitch.

In the evening the National Security Committee said it had stopped an attempt to provoke oil workers' protests in Mangystau in order to obtain additional funding from Ozenmunaigas; according to the committee, the group acted in collusion with the management of a contractor. Meanwhile in Aktobe, workers at Kazchrome's ferroalloy plant protested over wages that, they say, have not been raised for three years. The two stories are different in nature, but both show how labour relations in the resource regions are drawing the state's attention.

Prosecutors found more than 100 cases of abuse of children at a special care centre in Ayagoz district, and police summed up Operation Nelegal: more than 15,800 migration violations and 2,243 court expulsion orders.

What next

Astana is hosting ICAO Security Week on 20–22 October, attended for the first time by the organisation's Secretary General. Discussion of the bitumen draft will continue until 4 November. Rubio's visit to Kazakhstan depends on the timing of the G20 summit, and October data will show whether gas output has recovered after the maintenance at Karachaganak.

List of sources used

Artificial intelligence was used in preparing this material.

#Kazakhstan #Economy #Diplomacy #Energy #Analysis

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Diplomacy: Samarkand, Washington and the Leningrad region

Energy: gas, sulphur and bitumen

Economy: the state is investing less

Social affairs and security

What next

List of sources used

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