Astana, November 5. Kazakhstan would have produced 101 million tonnes of oil in 2026 if not for drone attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov told journalists.
Exports in 2027, he said, are expected at 79 million tonnes.
Production for 2027 is planned at about 99 million tonnes: the minister said so the day before. What is new in his comment is the loss estimate and the reason the 2026 plan was revised. “Who planned the attacks? And what if they continue?” he said. Tengiz did not stop for repairs in 2026; it will in 2027, though some of the work was done during interim repairs. There are no plans yet to halt other large fields.
On the deal between oil-exporting countries and their allies (OPEC+) the minister said Kazakhstan will be guided by national interests. The excess over the quota, he said, is in gas condensate, which is “as if not counted” in the accounting. At current prices the world needs additional volumes of oil: supplies through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered, but that does not restore the stocks spent earlier, including by the United States and European countries.
Separately, the Ministry of Energy’s press service gave Interfax-Kazakhstan figures for the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline. From January to October 1.32 million tonnes were sent through it; about 1.6 million tonnes are expected for 2026 against a plan of 1.5 million, and 1.7 million tonnes are planned for 2027. Akkenzhenov clarified that Kazakhstan would like to bring supplies to 2.2 million tonnes, but the decision depends on the Azerbaijani side, which is concerned about the effect of the quality of the oil delivered from Kazakhstan on the blend in the pipe. The 100,000 tonnes already added, he noted, are a positive sign. In 2025 BTC carried 1.2 million tonnes, according to Report.
What it means: The minister explained why the 2026 plan was revised: the earlier benchmark of 101 million tonnes would, in his words, have been met but for the attacks on the CPC, while the current plan is 96 million tonnes. By the editorial office’s calculation, the difference is 5 million tonnes. He also showed two routes to growth: OPEC+, where Kazakhstan disputes how gas condensate is counted, and BTC, where the decision lies with Azerbaijan and hinges on oil quality.
Who benefits: Oil companies and the budget, which need every extra tonne at high prices, and buyers who are short of oil. The Azerbaijani side gains control over the quality of the BTC blend: its decision determines whether Kazakhstan gets a larger bypass around the CPC.
Background: The CPC is the Caspian Pipeline Consortium: most of Kazakhstan’s oil exports, the CPC Blend grade, go through its pipe across Russian territory. BTC is a pipeline from Baku through Tbilisi to the Turkish port of Ceyhan; oil from Kazakhstan is shipped to it by tanker across the Caspian. OPEC+ is the agreement of OPEC members and allies to limit output; compensation schedules are the obligation to make up the excess when a country has overproduced against its quota. Gas condensate is a light liquid hydrocarbon mixture produced together with gas.
We have also reported on production plans and the fourth refinery and on TCO’s nine-month output.
