Astana, November 6. The capacity shortfall in Kazakhstan’s power system, counting the reserve, will be 3.1 GW in 2026, fall to 0.6 GW by 2029 and grow again to 2.7 GW in 2032, according to the KAZENERGY National Energy Report 2026.
The calculation rests on the Ministry of Energy’s official forecast balance and assumes about 10 GW of new capacity commissioned in 2026–2032.
At the report’s round table, S&P Global experts Dinara Daribayeva and Yernar Akhmettayev named 26.4 GW of new capacity for the decade. In the full report this figure is the total commissioning in the official power-sector development plan to 2035, 26.367 GW, including modernisation and expansion of existing plants; the text rounds it to 26.5 GW. The round table was opened by KAZENERGY General Director Zhandos Nurmaganbetov. For comparison, the Ministry of Energy reported on November 2 plans to commission 13.3 GW of new capacity by 2029.
At the start of 2026 installed plant capacity was 26.8 GW and available capacity 22.8 GW. About 77% is thermal plants (coal 13.7 GW, gas 6.8 GW), 9% large hydro and 14% (3.7 GW) renewables. Coal supplied 62.2% of 2025 generation, 76.5 billion kWh. Equipment is worn: average depreciation at conventional plants has reached 57%, grid wear is 66%, and the average age of combined heat and power plants is about 65 years.
The state plans to commission 26.5 GW of new capacity by 2035, which will need about 40 billion dollars. The list includes renewable plants of 8 GW, gas plants of 7.6 GW, coal plants of 7.8 GW, a nuclear plant of 2.4 GW and large hydro of 742 MW. Of this, 22.6 GW is officially due by 2030. The report’s authors warn that the planned volumes may prove excessive and put returns at risk, while the costs fall on consumers through tariffs, whose growth can restrain demand. Official forecasts of a multi-gigawatt shortfall until the early 2030s are, in their view, “somewhat exaggerated” but show that the system is working at its limit.
The national project “Development of Coal Generation” for 2026–2030 supplies 7.8 GW of this: 5.3 GW of new coal plants and 2.5 GW from expanding and modernising existing ones. For flexible generation, which quickly changes output, more than 4 GW of new capacity is planned by 2030, mostly gas. Wind and solar plants added about 3.3 GW over the decade, which sharpens the shortage of flexible capacity and the dependence on electricity imports, mainly from Russia. Nuclear power, under S&P Global’s base scenario, will deliver the first unit of the first plant around 2037 and the second in the early 2040s, slightly later than in official plans. According to the presentation, artificial intelligence and data centres will speed up consumption growth, and Kazakhstan needs infrastructure modernisation, realistic planning and economically justified tariffs.
What it means: The official balance promises to nearly close the capacity shortfall by 2029 (0.6 GW), but then the gap widens again even though about 10 GW of new plants are commissioned. The report also questions the opposite: the 26.5 GW plan may prove excessive and costly for consumers.
Who benefits: Those who build and modernise capacity, including coal, gas and nuclear. Dependence on electricity imports from Russia will remain until the shortfall is closed. Analysts speak of economically justified tariffs without estimating how they will change.
Background: Flexible generation means power plants able to quickly raise or lower output when demand, sun and wind fluctuate; gas and hydro stations are among them. A shortfall counting the reserve is the lack of capacity after the mandatory margin for repairs and accidents is subtracted from available capacity. A watt is a unit of power: 1 GW is a billion watts. The official forecast capacity balance is the Ministry of Energy’s calculation seven years ahead that shows whether plants will cover peak load.
We also wrote that the second Moynkum nuclear plant is under discussion with a Chinese corporation.
